Issue 13: The Forgotten Kingdom
An important Israeli partner, Jordan is overshadowed by the UAE normalization agreement
This week, the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) voted in favor of the normalization agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Though most Israelis are focused on coronavirus numbers and the much-anticipated ending of the national lockdown, the vote was a reminder that we are still in the early days of a significant geopolitical development with potentially far-reaching consequences.
Most of the coverage has been positive. Israeli media is highlighting commercial breakthroughs on a regular basis. Israelis and Emiratis are traveling back and forth, and commercial air traffic between the Gulf and Europe is already crossing over Israeli airspace.
There are going to be a lot of “firsts” in the coming months. But one of the challenges with developing new relationships is that they sometimes come at the expense of others. In particular, Israel’s burgeoning ties with the Gulf states appear to have caused further strain upon its already fragile relationship with Jordan.
Jordan is an essential strategic partner for Israel. Security and intelligence cooperation contributes to the safety of Israel’s longest land border as well as the more far-reaching efforts to contain Islamic radicalism. As a custodian of the Al-Aqsa compound in Jerusalem, Jordan is intimately involved in the politics of Israel’s Old City, as well as Israel’s engagement with East Jerusalem Palestinians (many of whom still hold Jordanian passports). You can’t really have a conversation about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or its possible conclusion without incorporating Jordan, both because of its historical role in the conflict but also because 70% of Jordanians are ethnic Palestinians.
Jordan - and in particular the Hashemite royal family - has also benefited from its relationship with Israel. Peace has brought greater opportunities for cooperation with the Western world and US foreign aid. It has contributed to the stability of the monarchy.
Jordan currently faces multiple crises. Its teetering economy has been challenged both by Covid-19 as well as the continued burden of nearly 3 million refugees (both Palestinians, Syrians, and others). The royal family is one of the moderating voices in the Muslim and Arab world, yet still implements draconian policies in order to quell the growth of the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical elements. The consequences of these efforts to quell dissent are unclear. Finally, the lack of progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and recent Israeli discussions about annexation also place pressure on the Jordanian regime to challenge Israel’s policies. In spite of all the successes in the relationship, neither party celebrated the 25th anniversary of their peace treaty in 2019. According to reports, Prime Minister Netanyahu and King Abdullah are no longer on speaking terms.
Just take a look at the most recent public opinion poll by the Mitvim Institute (where I work). Every year Mitvim conducts this poll in order to gauge Israeli public opinion on various foreign policies issues. Here are two questions from this year’s poll that relate to cooperation and engagement with the Arab world:
Jordan’s low scores are worrying. While the treaty signed in 1994 never developed into a warm peace, the survey results indicate that the Israeli public either a) takes the relationship with Jordan for granted, or b) because of recent tensions sees less potential with Jordan in comparison with other regional actors.
While one can’t blame the deterioration of Israeli-Jordanian relations on normalization with the UAE, it is important to ask how the language and framing of the agreement - especially its bypassing of the Palestinian issue - has sidelined Jordan, and in particular King Abdullah who did not publicly congratulate the normalization deal. Watch this video that was put out a week after the signing ceremony on the White House lawn:
Israel can’t afford for this relationship to slide any further. Jordanian stability is intertwined with Israeli security. Jordanian success is to Israel’s benefit. In an ideal world, the normalization agreement with the UAE would facilitate greater cooperation between Israel and each of its regional partners. But in order to accomplish this, Israel must prioritize expanding its partnerships in the region while also keeping the peace closer to home. This demands greater attention to the Palestinian issue, and greater dialogue with Jordan. If Israel decides to resume discussions about annexation, it may not be possible to prevent a total collapse.
Here are some links to content that I think do a great job of presenting some of the complexities of Jordan’s relationship with Israel:
David Makovsky, a scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, arranged a podcast that covers major milestones in Jordanian history, the nuances of the royal family, and its engagement with Israel over the course of several decades. During this episode Makovsky converses with Washington Institute Director Rob Satloff, Prince Hassan bin Talal, and Israel’s former Mossad director Efraim Halevy. I’ll admit, some podcasts are a slog to get through, but this one is balanced and rich with content.
Among the laundry list of challenges in bilateral relations there remains the question of resource management, specifically water. Erika Weinthal and Neda Zawahri (professors at Duke University and Cleveland State University, respectively) explain how this basic source of life is essential to the future of Israeli-Jordanian relations, and if left unattended could trigger future regional conflict.
“Amman finds itself walking a tightrope,” writes Jordanian journalist Osama Al Sharif in Al Monitor. The UAE-Israel agreement has forced King Abdullah into choosing between a bad set of options as he navigates this new regional situation.
Hope you enjoy reading. As always, I look forward to hearing from you.
-Gabi
(Cover photo copyright: xorge, Wikicommons)