Issue 25: Crossroads
Israel's election didn't produce a clear winner, so what's different this time?
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Gabi
Israel’s fourth election results are in. With the final numbers tallied, there isn’t a clear path for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form a government. The anti-Netanyahu bloc finds itself in a similar scenario. But that isn’t preventing either side from trying to increase their odds at securing a victory. The alternative is a fifth election and more voter frustration.
As indicated from the graph above, there are two parties - Naftali Bennett’s Yamina and Mansour Abbas’ Ra’am (United Arab List) - that sit between the two blocs. Public opinion, and the Israeli media, has long believed that Bennett would join a Netanyahu government. However, because of the election results, Bennett can’t crown Netanyahu outright. Netanyahu would still require additional support, either in the form of desertions from an anti-Netanyahu party (yes, MKs don’t have to remain loyal to their party) or outside support from Abbas’ Ra’am party that provides enough for a government to be formed.
Bennett is weighing his options, and courting both sides. In theory, the anti-Netanyahu bloc could form a government with his support. Still, it would require significant sacrifices at both a personal (i.e. rotating prime minsters between Bennett and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid) and ideological level.
Arab participation in the political process is possibly the most important development of the 2021 election thus far. Six years after warning his constituents that Arabs were being bussed in droves to the voting stations, Netanyahu actively courted Arab voters in his quest for reelection. In the weeks leading up to March 23rd, Netanyahu visited Arab communities across the country, sensing that voters wanted to hear something different. The decision by Ra’am - an Islamist party - to leave the Joint List left many concerned about the Arab voter turnout. If the Joint List was divided, would Ra’am pass the threshold? Or would tens of thousands of votes be wasted, dramatically realigning the final results in the process?
Arab voter turnout was lower than the previous election, yet when all was said and done Ra’am passed the threshold and became the Kingmaker - the party who could potentially realize one or both bloc’s dreams.
On Thursday, Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas delivered a prime time address on national television in which he articulated the need for Jewish-Arab coexistence and dialogue, as well as his party’s willingness to speak to anyone and everyone in the Israeli political system. It was a short, direct speech and if you understand Hebrew (and some Arabic) I strongly encourage watching it.
Abbas understands the leverage he currently possesses and will try to maximize his position in order to draw concessions from whoever is willing to talk. However, historically there are very few examples in which Zionist parties have agreed to cooperate with Arab parties. No Arab party has ever joined a government as a full partner. Would the Netanyahu bloc that includes some of the most conservative voices in Israeli politics be willing to receive outside support from an Arab party? Some say yes. Others say never. It is equally unclear whether the anti-Netanyahu bloc is willing to associate with an Islamist party that does not support LGBTQ rights. In short, there remains a strong possibility that ego, ideology, and political “norms” force an unprecedented fifth elections in October 2021.
With everything to play for and plenty of horse trading left to go, there are two developments worth keeping an eye on:
Starting next week, President Reuven Rivlin will hold consultations with all of the political parties. Each party will present its position to the president and recommend a party to lead coalition negotiations. On Wednesday, April 7, Rivlin is expected to task a candidate with the responsibility of forming a government. Likud MKs caused a bit of noise this week about Rivlin’s role, claiming that he was putting his finger on the scales, but at the end of the day the president is meant to task a candidate based on the total number of recommendations rather than hand it automatically to the party who earned the highest total number of seats. Famously, Netanyahu’s Likud party trailed Kadima in 2009 by one seat but was granted the first opportunity to form a government because the consultations demonstrated that he had an easier path to forming a government.
Even before a government is formed, the Knesset could vote for a new speaker and try to bar Netanyahu from running for re-election (in a theoretical 5th election). This could happen if the anti-Netanyahu bloc of parties - presumably 61 seats but still yet to be determined - passes legislation that prevents a person suspected of criminal wrongdoing from serving as prime minister. Watch this space.
Some recommended readings:
Not everyone is a numbers geek, but I’ve increasingly found that statistics offer fresh ways of looking at an event. Professor Ofer Kenig at the Israeli Democracy Institute produced a series of graphs that offer some different ways of understanding the 2021 election that I think is worth reviewing.
Who is Mansour Abbas and what has been his party’s strategy? Jack Khoury does a great job profiling the man of the hour and his unique approach to the 2021 election. I also recommend Edo Konrad’s analysis.
Veteran journalist Ben-Dror Yemini explains that the 2021 election wasn’t about ideology and despite the strong showing by the Israeli right Netanyahu is facing an uphill battle to form a government. One shouldn’t bet against Netanyahu, one of the country’s most successful politicians, and Yemini and Moran Azoulay both outline some of the strategic decisions Netanyahu must consider in order to stay prime minister.
Hope you found this week’s content interesting. As always, I look forward to hearing from you and please share my newsletter!
-Gabi