Issue 31: Change Comes to Israel
Israel takes a big step towards a new political future, but questions remain
Similar to Newton’s Third Law of Motion, an imbalance that forms in a healthy democratic system with robust, independent institutions will eventually be countered by actors who seek to restore equilibrium. In some situations, when this equilibrium has become so distorted, these actors must establish new rules to the game in order to reset this balance. Israel’s democratic process has been pushed to its very limits. But when push came to shove, eight political parties from Israel’s political right, center, and left, set aside enough of their differences to establish a “Change Government” that could theoretically break the ongoing political deadlock, signal the end to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career, and reinvent the way Israeli politics operate.
This development was historic on a number of levels. Just look at the list below:
First ever government where the prime minister represents a party with fewer than 26 seats. Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett (who will serve as prime minister first in a rotation with Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid) only possesses 7 seats in the 24th Knesset. As of today, one of his party members has publicly opposed the coalition agreement and another is on the fence.
Bennett would also be the first religiously observant, kippah-wearing prime minister in Israel’s history. While Menachem Begin’s fluency with Jewish text and tradition is well-documented, he did not wear a kippah on a daily basis and his religious observance was more masorti - traditional - than strictly observant.
The new government will have 8 women ministers, the highest number ever, including 2 women in the security cabinet (Yamina’s Ayelet Shaked and Labor party leader Merav Michaeli).
First time an Arab party has joined a coalition government. This isn’t simply an Arab party, but Ra’am - an Islamist, non-Zionist party with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
First ever Arab minister, Meretz party’s Esawi Frej, who is designated to become Minister of Regional Affairs (think normalization, etc).
That’s a lot of firsts that Israelis should be proud of. These accomplishments are a sign of meaningful progress in Israeli democracy. At the same time, it is evidence to the country’s deep political dysfunction and the lengths that it took to create a counterbalance to Netanyahu. Constructing the Change Government was the equivalent to a Hail Mary pass: it required an unprecedented set of variables to break just the right way to succeed.
Credit goes to Lapid, who was tasked with the mandate to form a government after Netanyahu failed to do so in April. Lapid, who campaigned on returning “sanity” to Israel, maintained confidence that the mission could be accomplish no matter how long the odds. Credit also goes to Bennett, who reportedly told his children this week that the decision to lead this new government would make him “the most hated man in the country.” Bennett’s critics have called him a liar, traitor, and much worse. However, there is no denying that without Yamina’s leader decision to step into the line of fire this government would have no chance of becoming a reality. Both Bennett and Lapid made personal sacrifices and concessions for the sake of a common goal, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that 59 other MKs - each of whom could have walked away from the negotiation table and torpedoed the entire enterprise - agreed to a path of flexibility and compromise.
Signing a coalition agreement may have been historic, however this achievement could still be undone. The coalition members must stay focused on their common mission through June 14, when the government is scheduled to be sworn in. Between now and then, myriad actors in Israeli politics and society will try to apply pressure on each of the 61 MKs who would be a part the Change Government to reconsider their position. That campaign has already begun, targeting Bennett’s televised promise on the eve of election day that he would not sit in a government with Lapid, his past statements against Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas, and his overall betrayal of voters.
Bennett interview on Thursday evening offered a response to his critics, even if they were unmoved by his answers. He said that his position on Abbas shifted following the Ra’am leader’s visit to a Lod synagogue during the recent wave of intercommunal violence in many mixed cities. “I saw a person who was decent and brave,” Bennett told Channel 12 journalist Amit Segal. Bennett reiterated his past statements that his first preference was a right-wing government, but the political realities prevented this from coming into fruition and his first commitment was to do what was best for the State of Israel.
The pressure in the coming days will be immense. Protests outside the homes of various Yamina and New Right party members have already begun. A new Flag Parade in Jerusalem’s Old City has reportedly been scheduled, a designed event to “correct” the cancelled parade last month and to galvanize the religious right against the Change Government. As internet incitement grows, so have security concerns about the personal safety of various coalition members and the possibility that Israel may experience an incident similar to the storming of Capitol Hill.
Even if the Change Government reaches June 14 intact, Netanyahu isn’t going anywhere. Instead, he will become the leader of the opposition. With a track record that matches David Ben-Gurion and the political savvy (and experience) to undermine his rivals, Netanyahu will take every opportunity to rebuild his coalition of support. Averse to TV interviews while serving as prime minister, don’t be surprised to see Netanyahu utilize the media in order to leverage his position against Bennett and Lapid.
Still, Netanyahu is in a corner. In the coming months he will be burdened with legal battles that will damage his public image and perhaps turn Likud party members against him. Bennett and Lapid are counting on this, and therefore the Change Government will try to keep itself together long enough to close the loopholes that Netanyahu exited through so that he cannot make a political comeback. At the same time, coalition members will try to make as many political gains as possible in the event that they must face off against Netanyahu once more. Don’t forget - five of the eight party leaders have previously served as ministers in Netanyahu governments and three of the eight party leaders were once senior aides to Netanyahu. They know that this fight may take years. The only real pathway to success is for the coalition members to remain committed to their promises, and in doing so demonstrate to the Israeli public that there is another way to govern.
A coalition built from eight parties from across the political spectrum would normally be recipe for infighting, stagnation, and deadlock. But adversity makes strange bedfellows and few believed that they would make it this far. How will they balance those commitments in cooperation with those who represent opposing views? How will they keep their hardcore constituents satisfied as they sacrifice ideological principles for the sake of a common goal? Where are the most obvious areas of cooperation within the coalition (think economics)? Could this government survive another escalation with Hamas? Will it speak in one voice to the Biden administration about a future Iran Deal? Is this the dawn of a new political era or just a blip that will quickly pass? We don’t have the answers to these questions, but what has happened has already rewritten several accepted norms of Israeli politics. Be prepared for more surprises.
I recommend reading these pieces to learn more:
If you want to try to understand Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, read their interviews with Times of Israel editor David Horovitz before the March 2021 elections here and here. But you should also read what they have written in the past. That includes Bennett’s argument in Times of Israel about the need to invest in Diaspora Jewish education, his New York Times pieces on combating Jewish terror and his opposition to the two-state solution, It also includes Lapid’s piece almost a year ago in The Atlantic, his longer read on centrist politics in The Times of Israel, and his book, Memories After My Death: The Story of My Father, Joseph “Tommy” Lapid.
Dahlia Scheindlin, a public opinion expert and analyst who I’ve worked with closely with over the years, spells out what the Change Government must do the day after it is sworn into office.
Regarding the Change Government’s position towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Jerusalem Post editor-in-chief Yaakov Katz offers some interesting proposals in his recent column, “Bennett and Lapid should seize the opportunity to lay out a plan now – before someone else does – of how they plan to improve the quality of life in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip,” he writes. “This will stave off the Europeans and the left flank within the Biden administration from trying to impose moves that the fragile coalition will not be able to handle.” I encourage reading the entire piece to understand Katz’s perspective of what has taken place and what to expect going forward.
Finally, Ha’aretz journalist Noa Landau contextualizes Mansour Abbas’s rise against the backdrop of Arab-Jewish tensions that Israel experienced over the last few weeks and hints at how Ra’am’s entry into this new government may transform Israeli society and politics.
I hope you found this week’s content valuable.
-Gabi