Issue 34: The Summer of Iran
Nuclear talks, a new president, a loads of questions about an uncertain future
While political developments in Israel have proven to be dramatic, the Jewish State was not the only Middle Eastern country to engage in an electoral process. The Islamic Republic of Iran held presidential elections on June 18, and the hardline candidate - Ebrahim Raisi - won handily with 72.38% of the total vote. Raisi will replace current president Hassan Rouhani in August.
The timing of the elections are coincidental but deeply consequential. Iran and the P5 (Russia, China, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom) have been engaged in discussions on how the United States can return to the JCPOA, otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal. Publicly, the Biden administration has expressed a desire to the return to the deal, but there appear to be discrepancies between the parties about how to proceed and under what conditions (in other words, whether the deal needs to be amended).
While ultimate authority in Iran falls in the hands of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (seen above), many believe that Khamenei handpicked Raisi to eventually succeed him (Khamenei is 82 years old). This means that Raisi may be given more bandwidth to conduct negotiations, or that minimally the positions reflected by the presidency will be closer in line with that of the Khamenei. But Raisi is also a controversial figure. He is widely considered responsible for the execution of thousands of political prisoners when he served as Tehran deputy prosecutor in 1988. There is a good reason to believe that Raisi’s election is bad news for nuclear talks and for regional dynamics.
Either way, developments in Iran warrant a close attention. Will Rouhani be tasked by Khamenei to reach a deal prior to Raisi’s entry into office, and therefore function as a “sacrificial lamb” of sorts while the incoming government can benefit from the lifting of economic sanctions? How will Raisi seek the balance Iran’s nuclear interests with the regional developments taking place, including increased cooperation between the moderate Arab states and Israel? Iran is a major player in the Syrian civil war and Yemini civil war - will Raisi’s arrival bring about an easing of tensions in one of those conflicts, or a continuation of the status quo? Finally, Raisi may have won handily, but only 48% of Iranians went to the ballot box, some 25 percent point lower than in 2017. This may mean that the “republic” component of the Iranian regime is nearing its end, however it also means that millions of Iranians chose not to participate in process thus damaging the legitimacy of Raisi and the incoming government. How those millions chose to respond to Raisi’s policy choices is an open question and one that international observers will be keen to follow.
I wanted to share some excellent pieces that address Raisi’s victory and the future of nuclear talks.
How will Raisi’s election impact negotiations with the US? Karim Sadjapour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues in The Atlantic that, “Raisi’s presidency will further complicate the Biden administration’s stated goal of negotiating a “longer and stronger” follow-on deal with Tehran.” I really like Sadjapour’s framing and you can read his entire piece here.
Meanwhile, Ali Vaez and Dina Esfandiary at the International Crisis Group argue in The New York Times that Raisi’s victory may not be all bad.
I also think that this Foreign Policy piece by Assal Rad and Negar Mortazavi on the distinctions between the Biden approach to Iran prior to versus after entering office offers a different, but important perspective. (As a side note, Mortazavi runs the Iran Podcast which I highly recommend).
Finally, I endorse this panel hosted by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, including inputs by Ali Alfoneh, Barbara Slavin, and Alex Vatanka.
Hope you find this week’s content engaging.
Best,
Gabi