Issue 36: Climate Change and the East Med
Few regions are experiencing global warming in such an acute manner
Unless you’ve disconnected your smart device and hidden yourself in some remote mountaintop, you already know that our planet is heating up. But even though the images of flooding in Europe and forest fires on the US West Coast are alarming, the fact remains that the Eastern Mediterranean (and broader Middle East) is the epicenter of climate change. Over the past decade, temperatures have steadily climbed as annual rainfall has declined. Why? According to a 2020 MIT study, the difference between land and sea temperatures is shrinking:
"What's really different about the Mediterranean compared to other regions is the geography," Tuel says. "Basically, you have a big sea enclosed by continents, which doesn't really occur anywhere else in the world." While models show the surrounding landmasses warming by 3 to 4 degrees Celsius over the coming century, the sea itself will only warm by about 2 degrees or so. "Basically, the difference between the water and the land becomes a smaller with time," he says.
That, in turn, amplifies the pressure differential, adding to the high-pressure area that drives a clockwise circulation pattern of winds surrounding the Mediterranean basin. And because of the specifics of local topography, projections show the two areas hardest hit by the drying trend will be the northwest Africa, including Morocco, and the eastern Mediterranean region, including Turkey and the Levant.
In simple terms, the Mediterranean Sea is a small bathtub compared to other maritime spaces, and climate change is speeding up the natural processes that have been taking place in this region over the course of millenia.
This is particularly worrying because of the Eastern Mediterranean’s existing political and economic structure.
Politically, the region is home to multiple conflict zones, including civil wars in Syria and Libya and the deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Natural resources, like water, are unevenly distributed and are frequent sources of tension between Eastern Mediterranean states. Ethiopia’s decision to construct a mega dam on the Nile River has threatened stability with Egypt and Sudan. Turkey’s efforts to dam the Tigris and Euphrates rivers will inevitably impact the economies of Syria and Iraq. Iran is in the midst of a major drought. So a region that has few existing mechanisms for multilateral cooperation is facing a threat to stability that can’t be defeated with force of arms.
This isn’t just a political issue but an economic one. Setting aside the disruptive impact of damming and shrinking water supplies (yes, yes, both are consequential), the warming of sea temperatures will negatively impact an industry that every Eastern Mediterranean state benefits from: tourism. Think about the pristine Greek islands, Mediterranean cruises, and the never-ending coastlines of Israel and Lebanon. Climate change is damaging those ecosystems, undermining their attractiveness to the foreign visitor, and raising the cost of maintaining a tourism-based economy. Most humans are dependent on healthy marine ecosystems, but the Eastern Mediterranean is defined by its relationship with the sea.
Galvanizing Eastern Mediterranean countries into action is no small feat. As I already articulated, cooperation doesn’t come easy. Israel happens to benefit from an active green community, however policies encouraging recycling lag behind OECD standards. Israel only relies on 5.8% of its annual energy output from renewables and only in the last week has the Israeli government proposed instituting a 100% tax on single-use plastics.
Educating the public will take decades of hard work, but there is reason to believe that Eastern Mediterranean governments - taking cues from US and European leadership - are realizing that they need to ramp up their renewables investments and environmental protection policies. The biggest obstacle remains cross-border cooperation, as climate change may not be a sufficient incentive for neighbors to set aside their many differences for the sake of their common future.
This is the challenge of the coming decade.
Here are several links that address climate change issues in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle Eastern region:
This week I wrote a piece in the Atlantic Council’s MENASource blog on the need for Israeli-Jordanian-Palestinian energy cooperation, where Jordan would provide solar-based electricity to Israel and the Palestinian Authority in exchange for desalinated water from Israel, a proposal developed by EcoPeace Middle East. Even if the project doesn’t grow legs, the fate - and stability - of all three nations are tied up with one another. Policymakers must overcome their many difference and do what’s logical. Omid Shokri, a research scholar at George Mason University, wrote a different piece for Atlantic Council that details the ongoing drought in Iran that I also recommend.
I also participated in an engaging event organized by the British Institute at Ankara on Eastern Mediterranean energy geopolitics alongside Fiona Mullen, a Cyprus-based energy analyst and Mehmet Öğütçü, a former Turkish diplomat and energy expert. While we discussed a range of topics, my opening comments emphasized the potential role of environmental protection as a confidence-building measure between Eastern Mediterranean states.
Few interactive pieces are more breathtaking than the New York Times’ 2018 feature on the role that a warming climate is having on Lebanon’s iconic cedar tree. As a complimentary, but no less depressing read, take a look at Amr Emam’s Al Monitor article on Egypt’s disappearing mango industry.
Karim Elgendy’s recent Al Jazeera column on climate change’s impact on Gaza is also highly recommended. Elgendy conducted a longer study on Middle East urbanization and climate change alongside Natasha Abaza that is also quite sharp.
Hope you find this week’s content engaging.
Best,
Gabi