Issue 38: Afghanistan Matters
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan is a seminal moment, but in order to understand why one must internalize multiple frames of analysis
In The Kite Runner, Khaled Hosseini’s best-selling tale about life in 1970s Afghanistan, the protagonist’s father offers a piece of wisdom that serves as a running theme throughout the novel. “It may be unfair,” Baba tells Amir, “but what happens in a few days, sometimes even a single day, can change the course of a whole lifetime.”
I read those lines for the first time many years ago, but in recent days the developments in Afghanistan reminded me of Hosseini’s work and Baba’s evergreen reflection. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan is a seminal moment, but in order to understand why one must use multiple frames of analysis. There is the great power struggle between the US and its rivals, Russia and China. Neighboring states - notably Pakistan, India, Iran, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan - will adjust their policies in response to the US withdrawal and the Taliban’s swift ascendence. Of course, the war in Afghanistan triggered by 9/11 was not only an American operation, but a NATO mission that drew support from dozens of countries and their respective militaries, intelligence, and development communities. Think of the thousands of soldiers, aid workers, and contractors who’ve spent time in Afghanistan - regularly putting themselves in harm’s way - over the last two decades. Of the 3,576 coalition forces that gave their lives. But this is first and foremost an Afghan story, where the Taliban regime routed by outside forces has returned to power. An estimated 210,000 people lost their lives in the effort to replace the Taliban, including some 47,000+/- Afghan civilians. During that period there were successes - greater liberties, economic growth, and the establishment of local institutions. The West’s nation-building effort had Afghan partners who were committed to building a better future. Those efforts - and those partners - face an uncertain future.
Even if one believes that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was justified, it is difficult to defend how its departure has been executed. No matter whether a country is central or peripheral to international politics, how foreign policy is executed matters a great deal. It should come as no surprise that in Israel - some 3,000 kilometers from Afghanistan - the manner of the US withdrawal is being interpreted by most analysts and politicians as an ominous warning. And I’d hardly consider the Israeli perspective an outlier on this issue.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has naturally sparked an infinite number of takes and angles. I wanted to share a longer than usual list of pieces from a range of voices that perhaps in concert could help anyone looking to make sense of the madness. By no means is this list comprehensive, definitive, or authoritative, but if you’ve been bombarded with headlines and social media soundbites and want more context, depth, and analysis this is as good a place to start as any. If you came across an article, a video, or something that doesn’t appear on this list feel free to reach out and I can include it in this post afterwards or future issues. This episode is not over. In the weeks to come there will be many moments that, in the words of Hosseini’s Baba, “can change the course of a whole lifetime.”
Here is the list - not in any particular order:
“What I Learned While Eavesdropping on the Taliban,” Ian Fritz in The Atlantic.
“Inside the Dizzying Fall of Kabul to the Taliban,” Francesca Mannocchi and Alessio Romenzi in Newslines Magazine.
“An irresponsible exit,” by Peter Juul in The Liberal Patriot.
“Washington Under the Cloud of Kabul,” Julia Ioffe in Tomorrow Will Be Worse.
“Don’t Fail America’s Allies: The Plight of Afghans Left Behind,” by France Hoang in War on the Rocks.
“Pax America Died in Kabul,” by Brahma Chellaney in Project Syndicate.
“Listen to the Voices of Afghan Women,” Gayle Tzemach Lemmon in The Washington Post (I’m also including her report with PBS on Afghan women).
“Afghanistan Has Never Been Moscow of Washington’s to Win or Lose,” by Sergey Radchenko in The Moscow Times.
“The IMF Acts Against the Taliban,” by Josh Lipsky and William F. Weschler in The Wall Street Journal.
“How will China seek to profit from the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan,” by Ryan Hass in Order from Chaos (Brookings Institute).
Finally, I’d like to share British MP Tom Tugendhat’s speech before the House of Commons. Tugendhat served in Iraq and Afghanistan. As a civilian, he worked for the Foreign Office in Afghanistan and helped set up the National Security Council of Afghanistan.
Hope you find this week’s content engaging. As always, I look forward to hearing from you.
-Gabi