Nearing a year into his premiership, Naftali Bennett is facing the most serious threat to his leadership. There are several reasons why this is the case, the most obvious development being Yamina MK and coalition whip Idit Silman’s defection to the opposition in early April. Silman, who hailed from Bennett’s party, claimed that the government wasn’t upholding Jewish values enough, single-handedly eliminated the government’s slim majority of 61 seats, sparking speculation of its imminent collapse.
Silman’s decision isn’t the only burden being shouldered by the Bennett government. Over the last few weeks, there has been a wave of terror activity and tensions around the Temple Mount/Al Aqsa compound, prompting the Islamist Ra’am party to suspend its membership in the coalition (symbolically, and it appears temporarily). Many voices in Israel are calling for the return of “Mr. Security” - one Benjamin Netanyahu.
With the Knesset on recess and Israel’s national holidays approaching, Bennett leaned heavily into the message at the heart of his premiership: unity. On Yom HaShoah - Holocaust Remembrance Day - Bennett closed his speech with an anecdote from the Warsaw ghetto:
“Finally, one last point that is especially important these days. The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising is rightfully considered to be the pinnacle of Jewish heroism – an impossible battle of a handful of Jews against many Germans. We all grew up on this legacy.
“Less talked about was the tragic fact that the two Jewish organizations that fought the Germans did so not as one body but rather as two competing organizations which failed to cooperate amongst themselves. Those two organizations were the Jewish Military Union, that belonged to the right-wing revisionist movement, and the Jewish Fighting Organization, that belonged to the left-wing socialist movement.
“Yes. My brothers and sisters, even during the darkest chapter of Jewish history, during our people's inferno of extermination, the left and the right did not find a way to work together. Each of these groups fought the Germans alone. I am trying to understand what ideological gap was so important that it was able to divide two Jewish organizations that were fighting such a desperate and heroic battle? What internal animosity justified such a division?
“My brothers and sisters, we cannot, we simply cannot allow the same dangerous gene of factionalism dismantle Israel from within…”
A week later, on Yom HaZikaron - Israel’s Memorial Day - Bennett used the word “one” nine times, “together” seven times, and referenced “unity” or “united” another four. Surely these are popular catchwords on national holidays in any country, however most Israelis understood Bennett’s theme and the political desperation behind it. To make the situation more tense, a number of bereaved relatives at the national ceremony for for terror victims refused to let Bennett address the audience, calling him a traitor and shouting at his on live television.
How much trouble is Bennett’s government actually in? This is a hard question to answer. Silman’s sudden defection leaves Bennett’s government with just 60 seats out of 120 in the Knesset. That’s as narrow a margin as it gets in Israeli politics. But the Netanyahu-led opposition isn’t in much better shape, as there are only 54 MKs who support him as an alternative to Bennett and 6 MKs in the Joint List of mainly Arab parties, who oppose Netanyahu. (Just as a reminder, Netanyahu still faces criminal charge and his trial continues.) In sum, even though Bennett lacks a majority it isn’t clear that there is a majority to topple the government.
It may not take much to alter this calculus. The smallest error in judgement could prompt more resignations and force the government’s collapse. Following Silman’s resignation and a wave of terror attacks, Bennett may feel compelled to tack further to the right and in doing so may disrupt his government’s fragile balance. Alternatively, some of Bennett’s coalition partners could consider abandoning him for the sake of a more lucrative political arrangement with other parties.
Depending on one’s perspective, Bennett’s change government may have successfully navigated a difficult chapter in the Israel’s political and economic history. However, it appears that no good deed goes unpunished. Elections, and uncertainty, loom on the horizon.
To learn more about the state of the coalition, I recommend Times of Israel journalist Tal Schneider’s analysis from early April and Neri Zilber’s conversation with Walla News Chief Political Correspondent Tal Shalev. Al Monitor’s Mazal Mualem has been tracking Netanyahu’s quiet campaigning in recent weeks, something that warrants an increasing amount of attention.
The Israel Democracy Institute released the results of their monthly public opinion survey, and the results are quite telling. Even though Bennett hasn’t earned high marks for his handling of recent events, only 1/3 of Israelis want new elections. I recommend the reading the survey’s summary, which touches on a wide range of topics.
Unrelated to this subject, I recently gave some interview on a range of topics, including the recent escalation of tensions in Jerusalem for the War on the Rocks podcast, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on global energy markets and the prospect of future energy contracts in the Eastern Mediterranean for Politico. I also had the pleasure of interviewing Dr. Daniel Blumenthal, the US Department of Energy attache in Jerusalem, about the recent water-solar agreement signed by Israel and Jordan. Our conversation was part of a series that Notre Dame has organized about the global water crisis and I encourage you to check out the entire list of content.
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-Gabi