Issue 63: Turkey's Judgement Day
Erdoğan vs Kılıçdaroğlu appears to be neck and neck as election day approaches
On Sunday May 14th, approximately 60 million voters around Turkey will go to the ballot box and place their vote for the country’s next president. The vote is a simple one: in favor of reigning President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s continued leadership (he has been the executive-in-chief for the last 20 years) or in favor of change in the form of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and a constellation of opposition parties who’ve banded together to support his candidacy.
The two candidates present two alternative futures on economic reform, foreign policy, civil liberties, and the country’s check and balances. And though it isn’t clear whether Kılıçdaroğlu could or would follow through on all of his campaign promises, the alternative he offers has him leading in the latest public opinion polls.
Kılıçdaroğlu isn’t a newcomer riding into the Turkish political scene on a white horse. He is a familiar face, the leader of the main opposition party since 2010. What has changed, perhaps, is a combination of the stakes (many fear an Erdogan victory might be Turkey’s last “free” election), his ability to convince the disparate opposition parties from right to left to support his candidacy, and a smartly run campaign that has tried to sharpen the differences between his persona and that of Erdoğan.
But the playing field is far from fair. As described by Ayşe Zarakol, Professor of International Relations at the University of Cambridge, “Erdoğan formally or informally controls all of Turkey’s political institutions, further centralizing an already-centralized state. There are hardly any checks on his executive presidency: the parliament is a rubber stamp, and the judiciary answers to him. The military is defanged; the police are loyal.” Every possible lever and tool to ensure Erdoğan’s reelection will be employed - either on election day or following the announcement of the final results (there are potentially two rounds, one on May 14 and a possible run-off scheduled for May 28). And yet the resilience of the opposition and public commitment to holding secure elections means that it will be a competitive fight.
So regardless of the result, May 14 will be one of the most significant moments in Turkey’s political history.
I want to highlight the insights of trusted Turkey experts, so without further ado:
“How Erdoğan Could Try to Engineer a Win and Stay in Power,” by Merve Tahiroğlu in POMED.
“Yes, Erdoğan’s Rule Might Actually End This Weekend,” by Gönül Tol and Ali Yaycioğlu in Foreign Policy.
“Fate’s Plan” by Kaya Genç in The Point Magazine.
“Omar and Omer walk into a voting booth,” by Omar Kadkoy in Kültürkampf.
“On Sunday we will see if democracy still exists in Turkey,” Professor Kemal Kirişçi as a guest on Turkey Today hosted by Yavuz Baydar (Spotify).
I hope you find this edition’s content engaging. Please feel free share this newsletter with others.
-Gabi