At this point you likely know that Turkey’s presidential election on May 14 didn’t produce a clear outcome. Sitting president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received 49.5% of the national vote, just shy of the minimum 50% mark to win outright. Leading opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu earned 44.89%. As a result, the two will face off head to head on May 28.
Some quick thoughts before turning to my recommended content:
A. Erdoğan is undefeated until proven otherwise. His political career is a succession of electoral victories (both for himself and the AK party), and he will be the heavy favorite going into the run-off against Kılıçdaroğlu. That being said, May 14 represented the first time Erdoğan found himself just short of the finish line, which speaks to the degree of organization and cooperation between Turkey’s diverse range of opposition parties in an effort to thwart its longstanding president.
B. That probably isn’t much comfort to Kılıçdaroğlu, who faces a major uphill battle to beat Erdoğan on May 28. In addition to all of the preexisting obstacles that I articulated in my pre-election newsletter, Kılıçdaroğlu must win over voters from surprise nationalist third candidate Sinan Oğan, who picked up 5.17% of the vote and could potentially function as a “kingmaker” whose recommendation of either Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdoğan may make all the difference (those who voted for Oğan have no obligation to listen to his recommendation). Despite all of the positive hype and polling, Kılıçdaroğlu and his supporters didn’t meet their goals. Worse, they failed to secure a majority in parliament. Erdoğan will use this as leverage on the campaign trail, effectively arguing that without winning both parliament and the presidency a vote for Kılıçdaroğlu is a vote for discord and stagnation. The opposition will have to redouble its efforts to make up the gap.
C. With everything to play for, expect the unexpected. On May 14, the story was both voter turnout (official turnout reached a record 88.9%) and the strategic decision by the AK party to challenge results in urban centers (where the opposition was believed to have considerable support) in order to delay the count and create the space for Erdoğan to potentially declare victory prematurely. This tactic will probably be matched by the opposition on May 28, but without question both sides will leave everything on the table in an effort to secure a clear, decisive victory.
Some recommended content that will flesh out your understanding of what happened and what comes next:
“With Erdoğan Just Short of Another Victory, This Election Is Not Over Until It’s Over,” by Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı for German Marshall Fund.
Check out Isaac Chotiner’s interview with author and analyst Kaya Genç in The New Yorker.
Finally, I highly recommend this conversation with Alan Makovsky, one of the most insightful Turkey experts in Washington DC and a former senior professional staff member of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
I hope you find this edition’s content engaging. Please feel free share this newsletter with others.
-Gabi