Issue 65: Why did Erdogan win?
Facing a diverse set of domestic challenges, Turkey's president once again remained adaptable enough to overcome a united opposition
There is a tendency to preemptively declare the end of a champion prizefighter’s reign before it is over. We fall for it time and time again, perhaps because we misread aging as a sign of weakness or perhaps - consciously or subconsciously - we delight in the moment when one chapter closes and another opens. We like the idea of change.
But on May 28, 2023 the majority of Turks voted against change and instead cast their ballots for long-standing president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It didn’t matter that Erdoğan has been the country’s executive leader for the past two decades, that the country’s economy was in tatters, or that he and his party was responsible for a systemic state-wide failure to prepare for the tragic earthquake that struck in February 2023. These knocks against his record didn’t resonate with enough Turkish voters to convince them to stay at home or vote for someone else.
That isn’t to ignore the millions who voted for change - and who will likely to continue to fight for that change in the months and years to come - however, understanding Erdoğan’s appeal is key to understanding contemporary Turkish society and politics and in a way it is also key to appreciating the success of authoritarian and illiberal leaders around the world at this particular political time period as well as the values and interests that drive their constituents.
I’ve highlighted three pieces that address this core question from different ways:
Gonul Tol emphasizes how Erdoğan took advantage of Turkish society’s “existential anxieties” - both heightening these anxieties while also promising to deliver salvation from them.
In contrast, Nicholas Danforth focuses on Erdoğan’s blending of nationalist and religious rhetoric to create a marriage between concepts that were long seen as being at odds with one another during the era of Kemalist secularism.
Finally, Sinan Ciddi argues that “Erdoğan won because Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was his opponent” and that rather than focusing on Erdoğan’s successes one should point out the opposition’s failures and shortcomings.
For those interested, I encourage you to watch this lively and thoughtful post-election conversation, hosted by Turkey Recap:
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-Gabi