Issue 26: Jordan's Maybe-Coup
Tensions within the royal family boiled over, raising questions about the country's future
Back in October, I had written in Invisible Boundaries of my concerns that the enthusiasm surrounding normalization could diminish the importance of Israel’s neighbor, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. It is a known fact that ties between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and King Abdullah II are strained, and that the primary channel of communication between Jordan and Israel over the past year was facilitated by Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi.
What I wrote in October is true today:
Jordan is an essential strategic partner for Israel. Security and intelligence cooperation contributes to the safety of Israel’s longest land border as well as the more far-reaching efforts to contain Islamic radicalism. As a custodian of the Al-Aqsa compound in Jerusalem, Jordan is intimately involved in the politics of Israel’s Old City, as well as Israel’s engagement with East Jerusalem Palestinians (many of whom still hold Jordanian passports). You can’t really have a conversation about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or its possible conclusion without incorporating Jordan, both because of its historical role in the conflict but also because 70% of Jordanians are ethnic Palestinians.
So when rumors began to circulate of an alleged plot involving former Crown Prince Hamzah Bin Al Hussein - half-brother to King Abdullah - it was not all that surprising. Jordan suffers from a combination of ailments, including economic mismanagement, one of the largest refugee populations in the world, and a revolving door of political appointees. Protests are an increasingly familiar sight. But even if there is frustration with the monarchy, is it usually directed towards the government. Since King Abdullah’s coronation in 1999, there have been 15 prime ministers.
The details are still fuzzy, but what we do know is that last weekend tensions between the king and his half-brother boiled over, resulting in a decision by Abdullah to strip Prince Hamzah of his security detail and restrict his access to the outside world. On April 3, Prince Hamzah released videos in Arabic and English that detailed his situation and frustration with government corruption.
In addition to Prince Hamzah’s detention, it was reported that Bassem Awadallah, former confidant of the Royal Court and minister of planning and finance, and Sharif Hassan bin Zaid, a relative of the royal family with close ties to Saudi Arabia, were arrested along with many of Hamzah’s aides. Awadallah also served as a special envoy to Saudi Arabia.
Within a matter of days, Hamzah declared his fealty to King Abdullah, and the story was effectively put to rest. We don’t know what the plot was all about, nor do we know how serious the threat was. And as opposed to the British royals, whose celebrity status compels them to divulge family affairs to Oprah Winfrey, we probably aren’t going to be treated to an exclusive Prince Hamzah interview anytime soon.
There were several Israeli angles to this story, including the rumor that a former Mossad agent offered Hamzah and his family assistance in fleeing the country (although the offer was made after Hamzah’s detention and there is no meaningful evidence to support the claim), and a statement by Gantz that the incident was an internal matter and “a strong and flourishing Jordan is a security and economic interest for us, and we need to do what we can to help them.” It was an unfortunate reminder of how bilateral ties with Amman have languished under Netanyahu’s watch, and the need to find new avenues for dialogue in order to maintain a high level of cooperation and coordination. However, Israel shouldn’t assume that the status quo will last forever.
Even if the episode between King Abdullah and Prince Hamzah appears to have subsided, it is only a matter of time before we hear from Jordan’s royal family again. The Hashemites are a vestige of the Middle East’s post-colonial past. How the monarchy adapts to the changing social and political realities of the region will not only determine its own fate but also the balance between Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians.
There are some really smart people tracking developments in Jordan, so here are a few recommendations:
Dr. Jillian Schwedler of Hunter College and Sara Obeidat, a journalist who’s been reporting on Jordan for some time, have both written some killer Twitter threads on this week’s drama (which I’ve included below). Obeidat has produced a number of sharp threads, so it was hard to choose between them. But her April 7 comments were important to include:
To see Jordanian authorities place a gag order banning coverage and circulation of news relating to the case of Prince Hamzah, and then only apply that gag order to the local press, is so indicative of how they view the local media and the little value they hold for journalism
Here are the primary threads that I think are worth checking out:
I was reminded of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy executive director Robert Satloff’s fantastic piece, “Why King Abdullah is King,” which came out in April 2020 and I promptly assigned my students. Satloff’s piece focuses on the dynamics within the Hashemite royal family that resulted in Abdullah’s ascension to the throne, but I think his insights are relevant to this week’s drama. Satloff also co-authored an analysis of the Prince Hamzah affair with senior fellow Ghaith Al-Omari that I recommend.
Finally, Atlantic Council - a DC-based think tank - composed a series of reactions from various experts at the institute. In particular, I want to highlight the comments of Tuqa Nusairat, Deputy Director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, in particular:
“By most accounts, what happened in Jordan this weekend was far from an attempted coup. It was, however, the manifestation of two trends the country’s leadership ought to be more proactive about addressing: the rising corruption with a corresponding sense of injustice felt by Jordanians, and the increasingly vocal critiques of the role that said leadership plays in overlooking corruption and downplaying dissent. Most Jordanians were skeptical of the full court press which the government engaged in to rally domestic and international support against what it described as ‘attempts to destabilize the country’s security’ with little evidence to show for it. Prince Hamzah’s final recorded statements appear to speak to the heart of the concerns most Jordanians have about economic hardship, rampant corruption, and an overall deterioration in the country’s ‘progress.’ In the court of public opinion, Prince Hamza appears to have captured the admiration of many Jordanians. The lack of evidence presented by the government of a domestic or foreign-backed plot has only raised more questions. Most in Jordan do not feel their country is or was at risk of such a sinister plot. The greatest risk that remains is that political and economic reform have been delayed for too long, and the little space that remains for Jordanians to express their legitimate frustration and dissent is further narrowed after a member of the royal family was silenced for doing the same.”
I hope you found this week’s content interesting. Support my work and buy me a coffee!
-Gabi