After twelve days and a billion hot takes, the United States brokered a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 24, 2025. In Israel, the war ended exactly as it began: smartphones buzzing with missile alerts. So much for creativity. Yet the calm that followed—even if fleeting—felt both surreal and strangely hopeful. Had the existential cloud of the Iranian nuclear threat been lifted? Was the broader war—not just with Iran, but its network of proxies—finally drawing to a close?
Is this what peace feels like?
These were the wishful questions many asked as they prepared to return to their “normal” daily routines after spending many long nights in community bomb shelters. But reality quickly reasserted itself the following morning: reports on the civilian casualties and heavy toll Iran’s missile salvos on Israel’s home front, IDF fatalities in Gaza, disputes between Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran over the war’s narrative, Netanyahu’s ongoing legal battles, emboldened Israeli far-right coalition partners, continued Palestinian deaths at humanitarian aid sites in Gaza, and still no agreement to return the remaining 50 Israeli hostages or end the war with Hamas.
This saga is not yet over.
Unpacking the Israel-Iran war amidst this murky aftermath is no simple feat. Should we consider it a chapter within the October 7 war, or a distinct conflict that warrants its own analysis? Politicians will no doubt decide first, followed by the historians. But like all military campaigns, the questions we choose to ask will determine how we understand the events of June 2025.
These days, I’m more interested in asking good questions than making definitive (and inevitably premature) claims. So I’m offering five sets of questions currently on my mind. I invite you to please share your own in the comments—and if time allows over the summer, I’ll try to respond to them.
1. Can military victories translate into political breakthroughs?
If we accept the premise I raised last week—that true military success lies in turning battlefield gains into durable political outcomes—then much depends on whether Trump can negotiate a comprehensive agreement with Iran on its nuclear program and regional aggression.
But will a cornered Iran accept stricter nuclear constraints? Or by attacking Iranian nuclear sites that were subject to IAEA safeguards and monitored under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, has the war undone the verification framework that was established to prevent Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons program? Will the war push Iran to abandon international norms and accelerate its nuclear program? And what, if anything, would cause Israel to break the current truce?
2. What now for Gaza—and the October 7 war?
If we view the Israel-Iran war as part of the October 7 war, could Iran’s diminished influence pressure Hamas to cut a deal and release the remaining Israeli hostages? Might Israeli leaders conclude that now is the moment to lock in a favorable political settlement? But what if no deal emerges soon? Will both sides dig in, and when will American mediators grow disillusioned and seek foreign policy achievements elsewhere?
3. Is the Middle East more stable—or less—after Iran’s defeat?
Another key question is whether the Middle East is more stable with a weakened Iran—or whether the recent war has set in motion a new cycle of instability.
Much remains unknown about how the conflict will reshape Iranian politics. Will it lead to the emergence of new elites? A further concentration of power in the hands of the IRGC at the expense of the clerical establishment? Or even a broader breakdown of the political system in the months or years ahead?
What history makes clear is that power vacuums rarely remain unfilled. The weakening of established regional actors—such as Hezbollah’s senior leadership, the Assad regime, and now much of Iran’s military leadership—has created space for new actors and rivalries to emerge. How will regional powers like Turkey or Saudi Arabia respond to Iran’s weakening and Israel’s display of aerial dominance?
At the same time, this moment may present an opportunity. Could it open the door for more moderate actors to pursue political and economic cooperation, deepen regional connectivity, and expand peace efforts modeled on the Abraham Accords? Early indications suggest that such a path is being explored—but the road is likely to be uneven, with unforeseen challenges ahead.
4. Will this war reshape religion’s role in regional politics?
How will the outcome of the war—and the broader conflict that began on October 7—reshape the role of religion in regional politics?
Across the board, key actors in this conflict—Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and elements within Israel’s own government—were led by religious nationalist figures whose worldviews fused faith and political power. This raises several questions.
First, could the failure of Islamist movements like Hamas and Hezbollah trigger a broader reckoning with religious-based politics in the Arab world? Might their military and political setbacks prompt a decoupling of faith from governance, or at least reduce the appeal of ideological extremism? Could a similar pattern follow in Iran?
Second, what impact will Israel’s military success have on its own religious landscape? Will it spark a wave of religious euphoria and further entrench the alliance between religious nationalism and political power within the Israeli right?
Or, are these ideological trends so deeply rooted—on all sides—that even major upheavals like war ultimately reinforce, rather than unsettle, their influence?
5. What will the global implications be?
Beyond the region, the aftershocks of this war will reverberate through international politics.
First, there are implications for ongoing conflicts. How will the war affect the battlefield in Ukraine, where Russia has previously relied on Iranian ballistic missiles? Could changes in Iran’s industrial capacity alter the dynamics of that conflict?
Second, there are questions about the future of Western military alliances. How might this conflict shape NATO’s ongoing debates about defense spending and strategic preparedness? And more broadly, how will it influence global norms around the use of military force to resolve disputes?
Finally, the war raises important questions about the evolving nature of military strategy. Will an “America First” foreign policy increasingly favor swift, high-impact strikes—like the operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities—over prolonged interventions aimed at regime change? And how might America’s adversaries adapt, studying these tactics to develop their own models for tomorrow’s conflicts?
Again, I encourage you to share your own questions in the comments section below.
Thank you for taking the time to read.
Best,
Gabi
Question for Gabi,
How important was, and going forward now is, Netanyahu's especially close relationship with Trump?
The extent to which the US engaged Iran in support of Israel's defense, in knocking down incoming fire, and especially offensively, contributed to Isreal's battlefield success in knocking down Iran's nuclear infrastructure, seems closely related to Trump's fondness for Netanyahu as well as Netanyahu's management of Israel's relationship with President Trump.
Trump, like Biden, relieved some of Israel's burden in the elimination of incoming fire, but Trump greenlighted Israel's attack on Iran's important military, command and economic infrastructure, except for removal of the Ayatollah; and then after much unfortunate delay, made a serious and comprehensive attempt to "obliterate" Iran's nuclear enterprise, and now brags about it. All of which goes counter to what had seemed to be his political promises to his base.
How much of this was related to Trump's close relationship with Netanyahu, and Netanyahu's management of his interchange with President Trump? How important is this relationship going forward?