1) De-listing HTS is one of the carrots that the US has at its disposal, but I assume that there will be a series of "tests" prior to making that kind of decision
2) I don't know exactly. I think they believed Assad could be "flipped" away from Iran. So now it is a question of how to project influence in a way that ensures a favorable outcome. And therein lies the challenge for Syrians - ensuring they get what they want when so many external interests will also be at play.
This is a great question. Many of the world's top policy experts (and senior government officials from the region) were gathered at the annual Doha Summit at the same time rebels were advancing on Damascus, and according to all reports the summit transformed from a pretty standard conference to a living breathing diplomatic event, so it caught literally everyone by surprise.
A few initial thoughts on your question. First, there was an overemphasis on the support Assad received from Russia and Iran over the years and not as much attention on how that support had faded during the course of the Ukraine war and the war between Israel and Iran's proxies. HTS and its backers perhaps sensed the regime's weakness more than others, but there is a chance they too were surprised. Two, regimes that have weak institutions are more susceptible to rapid collapse. The potential domino effect for senior military leadership to "turn it in" instead of fighting to the death is greater. So this is something I think needs to be explored more. Three, the policymaking community is small and there are times where it can be prone to groupthink. After over a decade of protracted conflict it is easy to understand why many felt like the current situation was unlikely to change so dramatically.
Thanks! Syrian society is a deeply fragmented that has never experienced real democracy, so Syrians will be facing an uphill battle. A few things of note: 1) An international "blueprint" for transitioning away from Assad has been in existence for a number of years, though I am skeptical how easily it can be implemented when developments on the ground are moving so quickly. 2) HTS is currently signaling messages that can be interpreted as favorable (re equality for all Syrians, promoting a decentralized political system which favors regional autonomy) but as mentioned earlier they haven't been put to the test yet. Some of the best analysis in the US on Syria in recent years has come from policy institutes like Newlines and Middle East Institute, but if I was to be up front about my process I make it a point to read analysis that is coming from multiple countries so as not to get trapped into a DC-oriented mindset.
Nice article, Gabi. I've read recently that 1. the IDF have destroyed the chemical weapons depot in Syria, 2. that the Druze community wants to be annexed to Israel, and that 3. al-Julani has basically told the Iranians to "piss off." Thoughts?
Hi! Great questions. 1) Yes, it has been confirmed that Israel's air force has targeted multiple installations suspected of holding chemical weapons (and one research center), but I wouldn't go so far as to definitively say that all of Syria's chemical weapons sites have been targeted or that its stockpiles eliminated. The general rule of thumb is to keep such weapons dispersed across multiple locations. Don't be surprised if there are more targeted strikes in the future. 2) I'm sure there will be a lot of declarative statements or social media buzz in the coming days and months from various groups within Syria, but in my opinion actions are more powerful than words, 3) it is true that HTS has an anti-Iranian position, so in the short term the supply chains between Tehran and Hezbollah will be weakened. But beyond that it is really difficult to predict how things will play out. It is tempting to say "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" but sometimes "the enemy of my enemy is my enemy". This is a moment for diplomacy.
Thank you for the resources. It is helpful to know where to look to dive deeper. What are the prospects for a democracy, or is Syria looking at another autocracy?
Fantastic write-up, gabi! Thanks especially for the suggested pieces. It's been difficult to find any nuanced and comprehensive analysis the last couple weeks.
My main question: As you mentioned, virtually no one saw this coming, and I imagine many observers would have laughed at the idea that Assad’s downfall was imminent just two weeks ago. How do you explain that? How did we miss this?
1) De-listing HTS is one of the carrots that the US has at its disposal, but I assume that there will be a series of "tests" prior to making that kind of decision
2) I don't know exactly. I think they believed Assad could be "flipped" away from Iran. So now it is a question of how to project influence in a way that ensures a favorable outcome. And therein lies the challenge for Syrians - ensuring they get what they want when so many external interests will also be at play.
This is a great question. Many of the world's top policy experts (and senior government officials from the region) were gathered at the annual Doha Summit at the same time rebels were advancing on Damascus, and according to all reports the summit transformed from a pretty standard conference to a living breathing diplomatic event, so it caught literally everyone by surprise.
A few initial thoughts on your question. First, there was an overemphasis on the support Assad received from Russia and Iran over the years and not as much attention on how that support had faded during the course of the Ukraine war and the war between Israel and Iran's proxies. HTS and its backers perhaps sensed the regime's weakness more than others, but there is a chance they too were surprised. Two, regimes that have weak institutions are more susceptible to rapid collapse. The potential domino effect for senior military leadership to "turn it in" instead of fighting to the death is greater. So this is something I think needs to be explored more. Three, the policymaking community is small and there are times where it can be prone to groupthink. After over a decade of protracted conflict it is easy to understand why many felt like the current situation was unlikely to change so dramatically.
Thanks! Syrian society is a deeply fragmented that has never experienced real democracy, so Syrians will be facing an uphill battle. A few things of note: 1) An international "blueprint" for transitioning away from Assad has been in existence for a number of years, though I am skeptical how easily it can be implemented when developments on the ground are moving so quickly. 2) HTS is currently signaling messages that can be interpreted as favorable (re equality for all Syrians, promoting a decentralized political system which favors regional autonomy) but as mentioned earlier they haven't been put to the test yet. Some of the best analysis in the US on Syria in recent years has come from policy institutes like Newlines and Middle East Institute, but if I was to be up front about my process I make it a point to read analysis that is coming from multiple countries so as not to get trapped into a DC-oriented mindset.
Great read. 2 questions. Do you anticipate the US declassifying HTS as a terrorist group? And how is this transition viewed in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi?
Nice article, Gabi. I've read recently that 1. the IDF have destroyed the chemical weapons depot in Syria, 2. that the Druze community wants to be annexed to Israel, and that 3. al-Julani has basically told the Iranians to "piss off." Thoughts?
Hi! Great questions. 1) Yes, it has been confirmed that Israel's air force has targeted multiple installations suspected of holding chemical weapons (and one research center), but I wouldn't go so far as to definitively say that all of Syria's chemical weapons sites have been targeted or that its stockpiles eliminated. The general rule of thumb is to keep such weapons dispersed across multiple locations. Don't be surprised if there are more targeted strikes in the future. 2) I'm sure there will be a lot of declarative statements or social media buzz in the coming days and months from various groups within Syria, but in my opinion actions are more powerful than words, 3) it is true that HTS has an anti-Iranian position, so in the short term the supply chains between Tehran and Hezbollah will be weakened. But beyond that it is really difficult to predict how things will play out. It is tempting to say "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" but sometimes "the enemy of my enemy is my enemy". This is a moment for diplomacy.
Diplomacy (aka Abraham accords!)
maybe, but not exclusively - there are many competing interests in the region that don't directly involve Israel
Thank you for the resources. It is helpful to know where to look to dive deeper. What are the prospects for a democracy, or is Syria looking at another autocracy?
Fantastic write-up, gabi! Thanks especially for the suggested pieces. It's been difficult to find any nuanced and comprehensive analysis the last couple weeks.
My main question: As you mentioned, virtually no one saw this coming, and I imagine many observers would have laughed at the idea that Assad’s downfall was imminent just two weeks ago. How do you explain that? How did we miss this?